What if Hitler only invaded USSR, would he have won?
By 1941 -1942 Germany had the military to do the job, but there is a big problem in that Germany has no common border with the USSR. Poland is in the way.
Could Germany have made a deal with Poland? Maybe. There was no love lost between Poland and the USSR. The Red Army had invaded Poland in 1919 and the war lasted until 1921 with the Poles being the victors. On the other hand, the Poles had had frequent wars with the Prussians, so I doubt that there were warm fuzzy feelings between them. So, for Germany to successfully attack the USSR, there had to be some deal made with Poland. Historically, no deal was made and Germany invaded Poland, but this is what brought Great Britain and France into the war against Germany.
Another question is could Hitler put aside his race beliefs and the concept of Lebensraum in order to make a deal with Poland? If we assume the answer is yes, then a deal could probably have been made.
On the other side, we have the USSR run by Stalin and the Communist Party that had purged its officer corps in the 1930s, murdered 6 million Ukrainians by deliberate starvation in the same period, and carried out sundry other purges and massacres that made Stalin and the Communist Party hated by a substantial number of its own citizens. Without the racial policies and the Einsatzgruppen, a large number of Soviet citizens would have welcomed the Germans and the overthrow of Stalin et. al. (Historically, between 120,000 and 130,000 Russians volunteered for the Russian Liberation Army.) Without the brutality of the Nazis, a much larger number of Russians, Ukrainians and other groups would have signed up to get rid of Stalin and the Communist Party.
If we assume that Hitler could be reasonable (A big assumption) and negotiated a deal with the Poles, gained the trust of the Ukrainians and other groups, it highly probable that Stalin and the Communist Party could have been eliminated, and the Germans would have won the war.
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